Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
